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Conclusion

  • Implementation of the measures to fulfil the Winter Package will be accompanied by high financial cost for Czech industry and the energy sector, especially as a consequence of securing of the savings targets and decarbonisation of sources. It could, however, concurrently increase flexibility of electricity trading in a more volatile environment and strengthen thus the active role of consumers and small electricity producers and auto-producers. Approval of the Winter Package takes place in the form of partial approvals of proposed amendments; its final form will therefore only be known at the beginning of 2018. RES remain a preferred group of energy sources. Due to the planned concurrent decrease in installed capacity of traditional, regulation capacity providing, sources in Central Europe and its replacement by 50GW of installed capacity of RES by 2030, dealing with deviations and regulation are likely to be ever more transferred to consumers.
  • This document is based on the presumption that self-sufficiency of the Czech Republic in covering the demand for electricity will be maintained for many reasons:

- Electricity imports do not comply with the State Energy Policy. The State Energy Policy explicitly declares article PI.1 Securing self-sufficiency in electricity production.
- Import of electricity is highly non-strategic. Apart from the dependency on oil and natural gas imports, the Czech Republic would moreover become dependent on electricity imports. Securing the balance of electricity supply and demand is however a far more demanding and expensive task compared to natural gas and oil.
- Electricity import is only a hypothetic solution in view of electricity availability on market in neighbouring countries. Electricity imports to the Czech Republic are conditioned by a surplus in production capacity in neighbouring countries. The development analysis of electricity supply and demand in Central Europe shows that present excess of production capacity in the region will decrease in 2030 and there is a great risk that Central Europe might become deficient after 2030. The actual decrease in offer will result in increase of electricity prices and the import of expensive electricity may be a considerable inhibitor of economic development of the Czech Republic.
- With the existing and planned cross-border lines, electricity imports are not possible in large enough scope to secure the anticipated development of demand along with the anticipated decommissioning of the existing sources. Current state and the planned development of cross-border lines is fully satisfactory in terms of the international cooperation and securing safe operation of the Czech Republic's power system; their use for routine electricity imports in the reference bandwidth is not planned (unlike the gas infrastructure which is in principle built to cover the demand from imports and to secure transit) and is not implementable.
- Electricity imports are only a partial solution of the issues of the energy sector. The decline in heat supplies from the large-scale combined production units cannot be settled this way.

  • In terms of the technical potential, implementation of the savings does not solve the potential deficiency in electricity generation balance in the Czech Republic either: application of the technically implementable savings cannot solve the decline in electricity supply caused by decommissioning the current Czech electricity and heat sources. 2.7GW of coal sources will be decommissioned between 2018 and 2030 while construction of an important electricity and heat source within the Czech Republic's power system cannot be anticipated by 2030. The Czech power system will then lose its export character and the balance will equalize at the best.
  • Decarbonisation of the Czech energy sector cannot be implemented without construction of new nuclear units. In conditions of the Czech Republic, the renewable sources cannot themselves cover the demand and decarbonisation – not even if combined with maximum implementation of savings measures. Nuclear and gas sources have to be added. The target to decarbonise the Czech energy sector by 2050 is very ambitious. Apart from the limit utilization of renewable sources (and therefore also new accumulation), nuclear units would have to be built in Temelín, Dukovany and another location, besides others to secure supplies of no-emission heat. All that presents new challenges for the power system operation both in terms of the ancillary services and network control. From today's point of view, commissioning of such a number of nuclear sources in the Czech Republic by 2050 seems to be hard to implement.
  • Termination of the operation of the Dukovany power plant will be accompanied by the annual outage of electricity generation amounting to 15TWh. All case studies considered operation of the existing blocks of the Dukovany nuclear power plant by 2040 to 2042. If the decommissioning took place earlier and no new important source was constructed at the same time, electricity imports to the Czech Republic would be necessary as soon as from around 2030.
  • Greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions will be reduced in all case studies. In both EU case studies, the drafted reduction is sufficient to meet the EU targets defined in the EU Energy Roadmap 2050. The Conceptual case study might meet the target only under the presumption that the CCS technology develops which was not considered within the study.
  • Development of the transmission and distribution networks planned by their operators is sufficient for the source base development according to the Conceptual and EU – Energy Savings case studies. The amount of renewable sources taken into account in LV and HV networks in the EU – Low-Emission Sources case study cannot be safely connected and operate within the current and planned conception of the DS; without major investment and operability measures.
  • Change of the energy sector according to the Winter Package means a considerably higher need for investment. In view of the investments to the power system (electricity generation, transmission and distribution), the most intensive case study is the EU – Low-Emission Sources case study (increase in total investments by ca. 120% by 2050). The EU – Energy Savings case study needs lower investments to the actual energy sector, on the other hand, it requires very high investments to additional savings (above the scope of the Conceptual and EU – Low-Emission Sources case studies). Sum of the investments to the power system and the additional savings is 140% higher in this case study than in the Conceptual one.
  • The increase in investments will induce pressure on respective increase in electricity prices. The expenses on securing the energies shall also include the investments required for savings measures. In 2050, annual expenses on energy are to be 20% higher in the Conceptual case study, 30% higher in the EU – Low-Emission Sources case study and 36% higher in the EU – Energy Savings case study compared to 2015 (in real prices of 2015).