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Energy policy and trends

 The main factor which forms the energy policy at global level is the paradigm of climatic change. In 2017, the Paris Agreement remained the crucial conceptual document which puts all the signatory countries under the obligation to keep global increase in temperature below 2 degrees Celsius in the long term in comparison to the time before the industrial revolution. The European Union is one of its leaders and its energy policy is formulated in this spirit. The key tool to achieve the long-term targets in this sphere is the new legislative framework outlined in 2016 – the Winter Package. The main subject of the document focuses on energy savings and deepening of energy integration. The Winter Package suggests modification of the target by increasing energy efficiency from the original 27% to 30% by 2030. The result of this modification is that the EU needs to further decrease its final consumption by 9.1% (97.65 Mtoe) in comparison to 2015. As far as the development of market environment is concerned, the package highlights the support to further opening of the electricity market, higher participation of consumers, legal strengthening of regional cooperation and formulation of pan-Union rules for the use of accumulation.

In reaction to the Winter package, the development case studies are drafted, especially the EU – Energy Savings case study which anticipates maximum possible savings in all spheres of energy consumption. Detailed outlooks were formulated separately for electricity, natural gas and district heating consumptions. The very important risk factor for potential development of the energy industry according to the EU – Energy Savings case study is on the one hand the lack of public sources for subsidy support, as the anticipated savings are partly not economically profitable, and on the other hand, especially as far as electricity is concerned, the effect of retro-increase in the demand for electricity due to the increased utilization of efficiency (the Rebound effect).