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Environmental policy of the EU strongly affects the future of the Czech Energy sector. The policy stipulates the decrease in total CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990; for the energy sector, the target is even stricter. If the energy industry develops according to the Conceptual case study, the defined targets will probably not be met. The targets are only complied with in the EU case studies which would however require great structural changes in the source base and considerable direct and induced investments. Further pressure on emission reduction will mean significant increase in specific investments of greenhouse gases reduction and great loss of investments efficiency.

Medium-term horizon

In context of fulfilling of the Directive 2010/75/EU, pollutant emissions are to be reduced considerably at the turn of 2020 and 2021 while further decrease by 2030 is to be slower. The immediate reason for the decrease will be, first of all, gradual termination of coal sources' lifespan and their decommissioning. The 2020 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions may already be considered fulfilled today. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 30 to 32% compared to 2005 in all case studies. However, the anticipated commitment of the Czech Republic to decrease the volume of allowances within the EU ETS by 2030 is higher (by 41% compared to 2005). If the Czech energy industry is not allocated further additional allowances, their lack on the market may be expected. The situation may be solved by the decrease in electricity exports and acquiring of allowances from funds designated for modernization.

CO2 emission balance


Long-term horizon

Further considerable reduction in emissions of both greenhouse gases and pollutants will take place after 2030 in relation to decommissioning of some old domestic brown coal fired units. Moreover, the Conceptual case study deviates from both EU case studies after 2030. The difference is mainly caused by steep increase in renewable sources in the EU – Low-Emission Sources case study and by the first important decrease in consumed fuel in the EU – Energy Savings case study.

By 2050, CO2 emissions are reduced by 73% in the Conceptual case study compared to 2005. In the EU – Energy Savings and EU – Low-Emission Sources case studies, the emissions are reduced by 93% compared to 2005. Of the analysed case studies, the emission target is met by the EU – Energy Savings and the EU – Low-Emission Sources case studies in which compliance with the EU Energy Roadmap 2050 is an input presumption. If the development of the electricity industry complies with the State Energy Policy (the Conceptual case study), the CCS technology will need to be implemented after 2040 in order to fulfil the emission target.