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Conclusion

The proven global gas reserves are 187 tcm and will remain easily available thanks to the existing and expanding infrastructure. The growing demand for gas on the Asian markets (particularly in China and India), which is nowadays motivated to a significant extent by attempts to replace highly polluting coal-fired power stations, will not significantly influence the availability of gas for needs of the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, the significant risk is the geopolitical aspect, which is the risk of dependence on gas imports.

  • The EU's ambiguous approach to gas leads to instability and a reluctance to invest in the gas industry. The EU presents gas as a transitional fuel on the way to absolute decarbonisation, and marginally considers even the end of gas heating in buildings; on the other hand, it encourages the construction of new backbone gas pipelines in the form of the PCI.
  • Solution of gas system's development is based on the assumption of maintaining the Czech self-sufficiency in meeting the demand for electricity. This influences gas market – mainly for the case study Conceptual case study it leads to high growth of demand for gas. If requirements of SEP have to be fulfilled, it is possible only by storage capacity’s increment.
  • All the prepared case studies indicate an increase in the demand for gas, which is related primarily to the above. In the Czech Republic, the demand (after temperature recalculation) for gas was 89TWh in 2016, while the anticipated demand for 2050 is in the range of approximately 100 to 150TWh (10 to 15 bcm of gas) a year. This increase is brought about primarily by the development of electricity and heat production from natural gas, and it is anticipated despite the fact that the study expects the completion of nuclear plants both in Dukovany and Temelín in all case studies. If the new nuclear units were not built, there would be a further increase in demand for gas above the described values i.e up to approximately 70 TWh on annual consumption (case study EU – Low-Emission Sources without realization of new nuclear blocks). On the contrary, a decrease might occur if the mining limits for the CSA mine are cancelled (this was not considered in the study).
  • The most significant development of demand for gas takes place according to the development in actual SEP, that unequivocally corresponds to publicly required, anticipated and politically negotiated structural changes of whole energy industry (to abandon coal-based energy industry). Fossil character of natural gas and corresponding emissions cause that in case of both EU case studies they show significantly lower, but also only temporary, growth of demand for gas.
  • Domestic sources of gas might meet up to 4% of the total anticipated demand in 2050. The Czech Republic will remain significantly dependent on gas imports from abroad during the whole horizon. Domestic gas extraction can range from 1 to 2TWh a year. Synthetic methane, produced at the actual borderline share of RES in the Czech power system, might reach 2 a year. The potential of shale gas in the Czech Republic is unknown and is not included in this study. Russian and Norwegian gas will remain a dominant source in Europe, given the ability of both producer countries to adjust gas prices flexibly with a view to maintaining their share of the European market. This is also reflected in the issue of security of gas supply. As a response, the new Regulation 2017/1938 of the European Parliament and of the Council on measures to safeguard security of gas supply and repealing Regulation No 994/2010, which aims to strengthen international cooperation in the field of security and reliability of gas supply for protected natural gas customers.
  • The future anticipated predominant direction of flows in the Czech system is north-west towards south-east. The potential termination of the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine might not expose supplies of gas to the Czech Republic to any new risks. On the contrary, it will strengthen the position of the Czech Republic as a transit country, which might bring financial benefit and the more efficient utilization of the domestic gas system. As shown by the analysed scenarios of development of European gas infrastructure, the total termination of Ukrainian transit is not very likely.
  • The capacity of border transfer stations in the Czech transmission system, or their planned development, particularly on the CZ–DE and CZ–SK profile according to the plans of transmission system operators, is sufficient (purely in terms of balance) for the transmission of the necessary volumes of gas to the Czech Republic in all case studies, including the anticipated transit flows, which can be expected especially after the commissioning of the Nord Stream II. The planned interconnection with Poland and Austria (to Baumgarten trading point) has the character of route diversification and is not necessary, purely from the point of view of the balance. The Baumgarten point, where gas from the Caspian area and Middle East regions can occur, is currently accessible to the Czech Republic only indirectly, using approximately 88 km of the Slovakian gas network. Due to the capacity of the terminals in Poland (in operation) and Croatia (planned), and due to the consumption in both countries that lie between the terminals and the Czech Republic, the availability of LNG thanks to the CZ–PL and CZ–AT interconnection is rather hypothetical and symbolic. In case of the STORK II pipeline it would be (in terms of operational pressure) possible to transit gas to Poland; and after change in operational configuration the import of LNG or from Baltic Pipe would be possible.
  • Due to an increase in demand for gas, the need of new gas storage facilities (according to requirement in SEP) has been identified, particularly after 2030, in the volume of 1.2 bcm. However, their spontaneous realization is very unlikely, as seen through the lenses of 2017. During an increase in consumption according to the Conceptual case study and without the construction of any new gas storage capacities, there will be a drop in the ratio of total gas storage capacity to total gas consumption from to 28%.
  • The conducted network analyses show that if a gas-steam source was built in central or northern Moravia, it would not be possible to supply it from the current intrastate transmission system. Even nowadays, the supplies to Moravia and Silesia are only conditionally sufficient, and without intensive coordination between the transmitter and gas storage operators connected to the intrastate transmission system, it would not be possible. The realization of the Moravia pipeline will definitely increase the security of supplies for consumers in the insufficiently supplied regions of northern Moravia and Silesia, and allow the development of the resource base of the Czech power system.