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Introduction

The Long-term Balance introduction

The electricity, heating and gas industries are the most important energy systems, and creation of the environment providing the balance between supply and demand is in the interest of the whole society. The market operator (OTE, a.s.) is obliged to process and submit - to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Czech Republic, the Energy Regulatory Office, the transmission system operators and the distribution system operator - a report on anticipated future electricity and gas consumption and the ways of securing the balance between the supply of, and demand for, electricity and gas.

The study analysed data available since September 2017 and was issued in December 2017.


The general objective of the Anticipated Long-term Balance between Electricity and Gas Supply and Demand study is the identification of potential problems and needs of the energy industry, the identification of problematic or dangerous trends and the setting of limits and risks in the long-term horizon, namely for the period between 2018 and 2050. This study does not predict development itself, it indicates the necessary measures, investments and consequences of choosing a certain direction of energy development that is modelled by a predefined case studies. In a relatively dynamic environment, such as the energy industry in general, this study allows readers to make their own analyses by changing the input conditions of the electricity or gas market, or by departing from the chosen assumptions. By this approach this study helps the energy industry development and helps to find answers to questions:

  • How can extensive application of savings measures and transition to low-emission energy change the development of energy industry?
  • What are the possibilities of the electricity, heat and gas demand development?
  • What can be the development and operation of source base of the Czech Republic's power system? How will the different paths of development affect reliability of its operation?
  • What will be the supply and situation on European electricity and gas market?
  • How much gas can be obtained from conventional and new domestic sources and how much will need to be imported by the Czech Republic?
  • What will be the need for gas storages like in the Czech Republic?
  • Will the capacity of the Czech electricity and gas system suffice?
  • What are the technical, economic, environmental and security implications of various paths of development of the electricity industry?

The outputs concerning the solutions in the form of reports, presentations at the meetings of professional groups and other informational materials, provide support to the decision sphere of the Czech Republic for political decisions about the future concept of the energy industry. This report is a brief version for the public; detailed results of the study were submitted to statutory bodies. For the elaboration of the document, relevant data as of September 2017 were used.


The Zero case study

The target is to identify the moment (year) when the Czech power system stops being self-sufficient. Calculations of the Zero case study are the first step to the solution and serve as the base for other (self-sufficient and operable) case studies. No new sources are considered apart from the existing ones and sources whose commissioning is anticipated (sources under construction).

The aim of the Zero case study is to indicate a year when the ratio of the total gas storage capacity and the annual gas consumption goes beyond the range specified in the relevant State Energy Policy, i.e. 35 to 40%. The calculations in the Zero case study are the first step in the solution, which serves as a preparation for other variants (in which the gas storage capacity is sufficient). No new gas storage facilities are planned in addition to those already existing and the recently commissioned ones and their storage capacity will grow in time. The gas storage facilities that are located in the Czech Republic, but currently used for another gas system, might be connected.


The Conceptual case study>

This case study is designed to meet the State Energy Policy. With respect to the approaching end of lifespan of the existing sources, the necessity to replace brown coal sources and the margins set up in the SEP, commissioning of new nuclear blocks, natural gas sources and renewable sources (especially photovoltaic and wind power plants) shall be considered.


The EU – Energy Savings case study

This case study is designed to allow implementation of the Roadmap 2050, i.e. reduction of CO2 emissions by 95% in comparison to 1995. The EU – Energy Savings case study tries to achieve the target primarily by applying energy savings to maximum possible extent. The case study verifies by calculations the media-attractive statement that savings are the best source of energy and strives to achieve the set target. In the first step, maximum possible savings in all consumption segments were analysed and the resulting demand was confronted with the available source base (i.e. according to the Zero case study). Detailed calculations of operation of the Czech Republic's power system by 2050 show that the system is not operable in this configuration – the Czech Republic can therefore not renounce construction of new sources even if maximum savings are implemented; the application of savings can not cover the terminating lifespan of the Czech source base. In the second step, new no-emission (nuclear, RES) or low-emission (natural gas) sources were added to achieve satisfactory operability.


The EU – Low-Emission Sources case study

The target is the same as in the previous case study, i.e. to allow implementation of targets of the Roadmap 2050. The EU – Low-Emission Sources case study tries to achieve the target by turning the existing production base to an emission-free one. The case study applies savings as in the Conceptual case study but includes higher electromobility and the highest departure from district heating to local heating (the low-emission approach across industries) which results in the highest demand. The production mix is compiled to achieve the Roadmap 2050 targets, i.e. emission-free. All the case studies are briefly introduced in the following table.

Brief introduction of the case studies

ZERO CONCEPTUAL EU – ENERGY SAVINGS EU – LOW-EMISSION SOURCES
It examines possibilities of operation of power system without new investments in it Development of energy industry is similar to the scenario that is in the current SEP  Development of energy industry, fulfillment of Roadmap 2050 mainly due to savings Development of energy industry, fulfillment of Roadmap 2050 mainly due to power sources
  • Common development of demand for power
  • Slightly higher level of savings
  • Development counts only on projects that are in preparation
  • Operation is possible only until limited horizon
  • Common development of consumption, but also of new technologies
  • Slightly higher level of savings (30/27)
  • Corresponds to SEP
  • Medium level of utilization of brown coal and natural gas
  • Medium development of RES
  • Development of nuclear sources
  • High level of savings achievement in final power consumption
  • Development of new technologies
  • Lower level of utilization of brown coal and natural gas
  • Significant development of RES
  • Development of nuclear sources
  • Slightly higher level of savings (30/27)
  • Development of new technologies
  • Lower level of utilization of brown coal and natural gas
  • Maximum possible development of RES
  • Development of nuclear sources